Here’s What Jail Does To Crime Rates: Nothing
Why we need to rethink the way we deal with crime
I don’t feel safe walking the streets at night. That’s been true from many cities I’ve lived in - Dallas, San Diego, and Greenville. As an avid consumer of true crime podcasts and as a journalist, I know way too much about criminals and their victims. I’m concerned about my family’s safety and my own while going out. Unfortunately, I don’t really see any solutions in the near future. Crime rates are rising and incarceration rates are decreasing. Although some might say that there’s a direct correlation, as with any topic, it’s a little more nuanced than that. This post will explore the elements that have shaped the current narrative on crime and discuss factors behind rising criminal activity.
(Note on Ukraine-Russia at the bottom)
Tough On Crime
Cue eye-roll. I’m over emotional appeals that paint issues through a lens of black and white thinking. As with any topic, there ARE shades of gray. This rhetoric characterized the 1980s and 1990s for Republicans and Democrats alike. It appeals to our fears regarding our safety. It’s also a claim that is difficult to counter. Who doesn’t want to be against crime? Who doesn’t want to seek justice for victims?
Back up for a moment. Imagine how this rhetoric can be used by those who seek power. It’s framing this topic through crisis-thinking. This is the framing that justified racial profiling, militarized policing, and harsh sentencing to save our cities. Now, the U.S. has the highest incarceration rate in the world without reducing the crime rate.
Well, does it work?
Let’s explore. Different crimes have different motivations. The tripling in the number of violent offenders in prison during the 1980s resulted in an estimated additional 9 percent decrease in violent crimes above the decrease that would have occurred had imprisonment not grown. Some can argue that’s better than nothing, but to look at long-term crime reduction, it’s not going to work. Personally, I want to know how locking up more people will solve crime? I mean, we need to get to the root of the problem. I don’t believe locking up one generation will reduce crime because the next generation will continue the cycle if the underlying factors are still there.
One person who might disagree with me is former prosecutor Kimberly Guilfoyle (who served as an advisor to the Trump administration). In an op-ed published by The Hill, Guilfoyle says, “Locking up criminals works. Strong sentencing guidelines work. And yet, Democrats want to completely throw this time-tested playbook out the window to appease their growing progressive base.” She states the “broken-windows” theory as the reasoning for her argument.
Broken-Windows Theory
Proponents of this theory say signals of an area’s general appearance can be indicators of social norms. For example, if an environment has broken windows and display other areas of lawlessness, like graffiti and litter, then it sends the message that the area is not routinely monitored and individuals would be much more likely to get away with committing a crime. Rudy Giuliani started to use the broken-windows theory as a way to reduce crime when he was elected mayor in 1993. All throughout the 90s, Giuliani increased misdemeanor arrests. His administration arrested numerous people for smoking marijuana in public, spraying graffiti on walls, selling cigarettes, and shutting down many of the city’s night spots for illegal dancing. During this time, crime fell and the murder rate was rapidly decreasing, earning Giuliani re-election in 1997. But, coorelation does not equal causation.
Factors decreasing crime in the ‘90s
Lower crime rates were the result of various other factors. A paper by David Thatcher* was published in the Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, arguing that broken-windows policing wasn't as effective as it appeared. Thatcher claims that lower crime rates were the result of various other factors, none of which fell into the category of ramping up misdemeanor arrests. Trends such as New York City’s economic boom in the late 1990s were noted as contributing to the decrease of crime much more so than enacting the broken-windows policy. Also, cities that did not implement broken-windows saw a decrease in criminal activity.
Crimes in America
I say “tough-on-crime” has no long-term solution. Poverty, social pressure, and mental illness are factors in someone committing a crime. I believe crime does increase with instability in society, and with the pandemic, people’s desperations can motivate criminal activity. As we experience increased levels of mental illness, drug addiction, increased prevalence of guns, instability in the workforce, and disruptions to education, crime will follow. There’s also been an increase in violent crime in the U.S. since the pandemic began. The United States recorded the highest increase in homicide rates since 1995. Many evidence-based studies have determined a causal relationship between the widespread COVID pandemic and the increase in specific violent crimes, like the increase in intimate partner violence.
New York City is one place where crime rates are rising significantly. This past weekend, there were reports of six stabbings on NYC subways, highlighting the unpredictable and unsafe nature of walking around a major city. Is it a coincidence that crime is going up in a city where affordable housing is nonexistent? In a country where health care is expensive or inaccessible? During a time when inflation is affecting people’s food budgets? After the unpredictable nature of a pandemic where many people lost their jobs? Mayor Adams laid out a plan promising a safer subway system, investing in mental health resources and addressing homelessness. I don’t know how exactly this will look like, if I’m going to be honest. Adams is a former transit cop, so hopefully his insight will bring valuable solutions and actionables to the issue. Jailing homeless people or people suffering from mental illness and addiction won’t solve any issues underpinning society. I also don’t believe abolishing the police and all prisons is the solution. I’m waiting to see policies that will impact the issues that cause crime, not the end result.
Thacher, D. (2003). Order maintenance reconsidered: Moving beyond strong causal reasoning. J. Crim. L. & Criminology, 94, 381.
*You can’t find Thatcher’s article online so I list the reference here
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine-Russia: Sirens wailed in Ukraine’s capital, large explosions were heard there and in other cities, and people massed in train stations and took to roads, as the government said the former Soviet republic was seeing a long-anticipated invasion from the east, north and south. It reported more than 40 soldiers had been killed and dozens wounded so far (AP). President Vladimir Putin has always had his eyes on Ukraine. This invasion comes as no surprise. But, Russia does not have the long-term capability to win this war. Russia’s technology is old, their economy is weak, and American/NATO military technology is better. I don’t believe NATO will invade Russia, but rather choose a more defensive strategy, which I believe is what Putin is banking on. President Vladimir Putin does not care about the loss of lives nor total destruction. Russia will not win, but there’s not way to anticipate how far Putin will go.